I recently read the book, “Black Swan” by Nassim Nicholas Taleb and found it fascinating. I had heard of the book, ironically from actuarial exams. However, I think Taleb’s book would be pretty insulting to many actuaries as he rails against modern statistical finance and the use of the bell curve. In this paper I look at how Actuaries can use Black Swans as a point of reference when conducting solvency testing. I think Actuaries should spend more time contending with the potentially extremely adverse scenarios that could impact some assumptions (e.g. Lapse rates in LTC).
So, the SOA once invited Taleb to a conference (where I wasn't at, btw... unfortunately, I rarely go to these things)... and I hear tell he took the opportunity to insult us actuaries to our faces.
Wow, well at least you know when you talk to him, he will never pull any punches. He is all over SOA study materials but so are ideas that he probably vehemently despises.
This was the problem I used to have with Taleb: "The problem I used to have with Taleb (I didn’t mind the self-promotion or even the assholishness) was that he said things that were true… but not useful. He told me things I already knew, but there was nothing useful I could do with them." -- that was Black Swan. I already knew that stuff. That's why we do stress-testing, duh.
but the stuff he wrote later, like Skin in the Game and Anti-Fragile... those have ideas that were very useful to me.
So, the SOA once invited Taleb to a conference (where I wasn't at, btw... unfortunately, I rarely go to these things)... and I hear tell he took the opportunity to insult us actuaries to our faces.
Good for him.
Wow, well at least you know when you talk to him, he will never pull any punches. He is all over SOA study materials but so are ideas that he probably vehemently despises.
And thank you for restacking!
I could write so much about Taleb.... oh, wait, I have.
Let me just link one:
https://stump.marypat.org/article/931/divestment-and-activist-investing-follies-don-t-let-the-evil-ones-bank
This was the problem I used to have with Taleb: "The problem I used to have with Taleb (I didn’t mind the self-promotion or even the assholishness) was that he said things that were true… but not useful. He told me things I already knew, but there was nothing useful I could do with them." -- that was Black Swan. I already knew that stuff. That's why we do stress-testing, duh.
but the stuff he wrote later, like Skin in the Game and Anti-Fragile... those have ideas that were very useful to me.