The Future Demographics of China's Population
In this paper I discuss China’s future population demographics. The UN projects that China’s population will decline by roughly 300 million people over the next 50 years. I have built a ground-up population projection model that ties fairly well to the UN’s projections (see attached excel spreadsheet). Overall the key driver appears to be China’s low birth rates which were induced by its infamous one-child policy. In this paper I point to the work of Yi Fuxian who asserted that China has been overreporting its birth rates (which are low to begin with). In addition, China could also struggle with an aging population. China’s Retiree Proportion (% of Population 65+) is projected to climb quickly which will put strain on its economy. Overall my key takeaways were as follows;
China’s low birth rates are key driver in justifying the assertion that its population will decline.
China’s population is projected to become significantly older very quickly because the low number of newborns is not enough to replace the amount of people aging out of the workforce.
Based on the Chinese mortality tables used, China has high old-age mortality which could be interpreted as China has room to improve on the elderly mortality front. In turn, if China’s old-age mortality improves its future population could be even older.
Hope you enjoy,
Matt